Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
Coronavirus, Fatality Rate, Incubation Period, Age and Conditions, Global Emergency.
How dangerous is the virus ?
The transmission rate of the virus is indicated by the reproductive number (Ro, Ro is pronounced as “R-nought” or “r-zero”), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO’s estimated (on Jan-23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5.
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5.
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.
There are three parameters to understand the risk of the novel coronavirus
1.Transmission Rate(Ro) – The number of newly affected person from a single case
2.Case Fatality Rate (CFR) – The percentage of cases which results in death
3.To determine whether asymptomatic transmission is possible
Fatality rate of the coronavirus?
The fatality rate of novel coronavirus has been estimated around 2%, which is stated in WHO press conference held January 29 and it is noted that without knowing how many of them got infected, it is too early to put up a percentage on the mortality rate figure. According to epidemiologists, the fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate.For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.
Incubation period (how long will it take symptoms to appear):
The incubation period is very important for the health authorities because it allows them to introduce more effective quarantine systems for the suspected people carrying the virus, as a way of controlling and preventing the spread of the virus.
The incubation period ranges from 2-14 days that represents the estimated range for the official novel coronavirus COVID-19.
The World Health Organization(WHO) have reported that an incubation period can range from 2 – 10 days for COVID-19.
The China’s National Health Commission (NHC) have initially estimated that the incubation period range from 10 – 14 days for COVID-19.
The United States CDC have initially estimated that the incubation period ranges from 2 – 14 days for COVID-19.
Conditions and age of coronavirus cases:
According to the estimates given by China’s National Health Organization, about 80% of the people who died were over the age of 60 years and 75% of the people who died had pre existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.
People of all ages can be infected by the novel coronavirus COVID-19.Older people, and people with pre existing medical conditions such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease appear to be more severely ill with the virus.
Global emergency – WHO Risk Assessment:
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